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Now somebody explain to me...

Now I know I'm the one with the politics degree in here :P (oh, viges has one too) but I don't really get what's happening in the Middle East at the moment.

How come Israel bombs the airport in Beirut and nobody really seems to care? Lebanon was on the way up again, yes they aren't completely kosher and curruption reigns but they were bouncing back with Syrian troops withdrawing earlier this year. Beirut was almost restored to its former glory (and having seen some pictures of it pre 1982, it was absolutely breathtaking). Then, all of a sudden they get their main airport blown to pieces out of nowhere just because some idiots captured two (!!) soldiers in their southern hinterland, way off the influence of the capital. What's the point of such actions? And why is it reported so matter-of-factly?

Yes, Faraya-Mzaar was on my list of places to visit.
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Comments

  • Because troops/commandos/rouge elements that have the wink and a nod from the legit gov't from their side of the border crossed into a soverign nation and took hostages without provocation.

    Lebanon and Syria both back Hezbolah and Hamas financially and to a lesser extent diplomatically and are sworn to destroy Israel.

    Thats why.
  • so if some crazy armed rednecks in north dakota or idaho cross the border and kidnap a mounty, sorry, two mounties, it is no problem for Canada to bomb Chicago O'Hare?
  • One, that would never happen. Two, the U.S. doesn't back Hamas or Hezbolah. Three, the U.S. is not sworn to destroy Canada.

    And, yeah, Canada is more reasonable than Israel, but people can actually reason with the U.S. to begin with, and the Middle Eastern countries aren't like that. Israel can't go talk to Lebanon or Syria or any of the other Middle Eastern countries because they all hate Israel, their only way to protect themselves is militarily.

    [Edited on 13-7-06 by Rekart]
  • RJ, I have a few Lebanese friends and even they cannot explain it, without an anti Israeli slant. Just face it, peace in that neck of the woods will never exist. I guess voting in Hamas pre determined this eventual outcome.

    This just could be the foot in door the Iranian "Dinnerjacket" (as emmet calls him) leader needs to start something with Syria against Israel.

    Then all hell will break loose.
  • I think what RJ is referring to is that before '82, Lebannon was not particularly 'into' the hate Isreal thing.

    The population is fairly evenly disributed across religious lines christian/muslim, is highly educated, business savvy, and basically does not generall follow the Arab cliche'.

    It was only - as I understand it - after the Palestinians started to have too much sway that things got nasty, leading to civil war and virtual annexation by Isreal.

    Things did not improve with the arrival of the Syrians with governments operating with a rather uncomfortable Syrian military hand up their backs until they left.

    It was beginning to seem as though, with these influences gone, that things were starting to return to normal with the society trying to re-establish itself on sectarian lines and to recreate Beirut as the 'Paris of the East'.

    Clearly, the Jews believe that Hamas has some strong influence in, at the very least southern Lebannon, or as seems to be suggested by their targets, the Lebannese government itself. I think that their stated reason for crapping the airport was to prevent the captors from taking the soldiers from the country. If the statutory authorities are not complicit, this would probably not be possible. If they are, then clearly the government is and so everything goes back to where it was. Bad guys on all borders as far as the Israelis are concerned.

    Really, we could do without the Middle East.................couldn't we?
  • I just wish they'd all attack Israel. Hell, CNN would love it.
  • I fear we are on the brink of another world war:(
  • In some 40 years, when all petroleum reserves have been used up, nobody will care about the middle east anymore!

    Mark my words!
  • world war between syria and israel neil?
  • It's a bit short-sighted to think it's just between Israel and Syria. For one, it's never a two-country war in the Middle East, and Israel is like the US's child, it seems. They got more than $2 billion in military help from the U.S. last year. If they get into a fight with Syria/Lebanon, Iran will be involved as well, and I would bet they won't be the only ones to join in. It's not hard for me to see this becoming a World War. If nukes can stay out of it, it could be for the better in the long-run, no matter how hard it is to say war can ever be a good thing.

    And while all this is going on, North Korea gets forgotten for awhile.
  • c'mon, none of these problems are new they've been going on for most of the cold war and beyond. it could spread throughout the region but that wouldn't be new as well...
  • Eventually one of these fights will become bigger than all the others though, it's just a matter of when.
  • you'll be surprised how things will change once oil hits 100$ a barrel.

    plus places like japan, china and australia (and i'd say most of europe) don't really care about the region. and that's what would need to join in for a "world war"
  • But there's still North Korea. WW2 was not all about the Nazis, that didn't affect Japan at all. If they get their nuclear technology done, they could either try to use it anc catch everyone off-guard, or they could sell it to some group in the Middle East. In either case, I think they would be attacked by the U.S, and if they have nuclear technology, Japan will get involved for sure, and probably others in the region as well.

    Granted, World War may be a little overboard, but it's almost as if the media wants one. No bigger story than a World War.

    [Edited on 14-7-06 by Rekart]
  • Australia, and even the USA, aren't about to go to war to save Israel's arse.

    They're big enough and ugly enough to take on any of those Arab nations, possibly with the exception of Iran, and give them all a bloody nose.

    I'm frankly happy if they bomb the shit out of each other, maybe we can finally declare someone the winner.
  • robert-jan, how this started (capturing of 2 israeli soldiers) didn't really matter...as this was all pre-planned long before usa "conquered" iraq.

    when bush was elected for the first term, there was a singularly strong resolution to occupy the whole of the middle east with war thrown in (to have additional side business for the american arms and building contractors) to control the oil. then 911 came at an opportuned time and in they went without un approval...

    except that the 2 soldiers made israel go into this phase a little bit too early as the "conquer" of iraq took a little too long and america is too occupied with too much in their hands.

    worse still is that north korea thingy whom bush-cheney thought they caould bring to their knees with that carrot thingy which they successfullu used on libya...it didn't bite and now america is in a BIG quandry of whether to turn back with tail in between their balls or proceed with their plan comes high water or hell...note the american thug bolton insists on un approval before acting on korea now...hehehe

    looks darn interesting, if you were to ask me.
  • guys, if oil hits 100$ a barrel, bush's base will be stirring so much shit (because they can't fill up their suvs anymore) that aipac all of a sudden seems like a quite negligible organisation.

    or all of a sudden car makers will be able to build 200 miles to the gallon cars :D
  • rj, interesting article on my blog about a new book by john dean. Me thinks that there are deeper strategies at play in all this...I hate to be a consiracy theorist here but for several years now some "moves" made by certain key players in the world politics where utterly confusing. Several years back Pres. Bush made a quick comment during his state of the union address to the effect "that by 2010" or thereabouts "the US should have vehicles run by "60% hybrid technology" no one really noticed this comment but if you ponder it for a bit it makes you have to wonder what happens to the main source of oil for the US...given that if the oil demand drops it could lead to total economic collapse of certain middle eastern countries. If that scenerio where to happen, given we reached the goal of reduced dependence on Middle Eastern oil then it would be in the US interests to maintain a "supply" of oil to drive the US economic machine.

    So, my point in all this is that the Israeli lobby in AIPAC is very very strong and who knows what geopolitical cards are being played (who's scratchign who's back") it seems that the short term effect, combined with high oil prices has lead the the US stock market to drop below 11,000 in the past three days.

    In the US, or for that matter, any governing body, operating an economy in a "war footing" enables the ruling party to have more room to oeprate and fulfill it's agenda because it gets carte balnche approval on a number of issues.

    Frankly, I'm surprised that there hasn't been more public outcry about the attacks on a sovereign nation.

    For the first time yesterday, I was in a discussion with a business associate and I finally came around to Emmet's point fo view, Nuke them all. Mind you it was brief and fleeting. But these petty politics are no different thanwhat we see int he leadership in F1. The people in th elead are so far removed and have such blinders on that they don't even have an understanding of what the general populance pervcieves outside of the polling data that tends to support the spin it gets.

    sorry if I have been all over the board on this issue but i believe that there is much much more to the story and many more pieces in play on the international chess board than we can see. We're watching what we think is a standard game of chess when in fact the game at play is Three Dimensional Eight Level Chess.

    You gotta love that because it brings together all the elements of both static and dynamic game theory. Who's up for some Brownian motion study?

    [Edited on 15-7-06 by bernie]

    [Edited on 15-7-06 by bernie]

  • Who's up for some Brownian motion study?
    why, do you have to fart :D:D
  • Factycrab - I don't think any of this was pre-planned. Naturally, the U.S. government would want more control of the oil supply because of how important it is to the economy, but I don't think there was a plan to try to conquer nations in the Middle East to do this. It's increasingly obvious that Iraq was not the biggest enemy, or at least not the biggest threat, and they aren't the biggest oil producer either, so that doesn't fit.

    But yes, now Israel decided to start their war when their biggest supporter - the U.S. - is already too occupied to help them. Sure, they were provoked, but this isn't the first time Israel has had attacks against it, and they've always handled it differently in the past. This doesn't fit in with your entire conspiracy.

    North Korea is yet another problem. I'm not sure how to handle this one. They need to be stopped before they have nuclear technology, but the rest of the world is occupied by pussies who won't do anything. And that's the main problem. There aren't any leaders in the world government anymore. Bush is the only one who will do anything, and I don't necessarily agree with him, or like him, or think he makes the right move, but other countries need LEADERS. They're all too afraid to do anything until something bad happens, when it's plainly obvious that if no on does anything, something bad IS going to happen, either from Iran or North Korea. The U.N. does no good and just gets in the way. It's just an easy place for countries to lie to all the others.

    And I'll be clear, I don't like Bush. But I do like that he's not a pussy.
  • What I find interesting about Bush is that despite having taken on the easy targets (fundamentalist sheep herders in Afghanistan, a 1965-spec army in Iraq) he still hasn't won either 'war'.

    No way he's going to risk a confrontation with Iran and/or North Korea.
  • "What I find interesting about Bush is that despite having taken on the easy targets (fundamentalist sheep herders in Afghanistan, a 1965-spec army in Iraq) he still hasn't won either 'war'."

    ...and anyone who knew anything about the history and culture of either place knew it was going to be at least a 10 year slog in Iraq and probably 2/3 as long as that in Afghanistan....barring any unforeseen, stupid mistakes.

    "No way he's going to risk a confrontation with Iran and/or North Korea."
    MinardiP1... I wish I could agree with you on that but I don't think the chicago school plan is yet complete.
  • The war was won in Iraq, the way I see it, now it's a different war. It's a culture war. It was plainly obvious to everyone but the U.S. government that a democracy in a country containing 2/3 factions that hate each other was never going to work. The original war, the one to get Saddam out and democracy in, is won, but this other war is even harder and worse. Like bernie said, it was/is going to be at least a 10 year war, and that's on the optimistic side.

    As for Afghanistan, I haven't heard anyone talk about it in awhile. I must admit, I have no idea what's going on there.
  • RJ, remeber how WW1 started, one single shot.
  • southern afghanistan is being over run with Taliban. The taliban have won (bought) over the loyalty of some of the southern tribes. It's probably only temporary.
  • Hell, with how preoccupied the U.S. is right now, you never know how temporary it is. There are still troops there though, and they should be able to handle that. The Taliban is much weaker than they used to be, it can't be as hard of a fight as it was before.
  • RJ - your analogy is not quite correct.

    Imagine that the northern part of Mexico - T town and the like - was occupied and run by Al Queada. The Mexican government has given up trying to control the area much along the same lines as they do now.

    Al Q and his buddies start lobbing missles into the US from there. We ask the Mexican gov't to do something about it but they do nothing. They do cross border raids into the US etc etc.

    What do youthink we would do? Should do?

    Funny thing is that this situation IS happening now. It is not Al Q and his buddies but human trafficking/drug smuggling gangs. To the point of recorded incidents where people dressed in Mexican Army gear and using military vehicles have crossed our border (to include one helicopter landing!) and the use of 50 caliber macchine guns on our Border Patrol!

    And we do nothing.
  • Still, the Mexican's goals are different than Hezbollah's. They want to come here because it's better, they don't come here to kidnap our soldiers. The way they do it is wrong, but it's hard to fault them. It's not as if the Mexican government WANTS to be losing people, but they don't have the resources to do much about it anyway.

    So we have to, and we will, eventually.
  • Oh yes - they want to lose people. The Mexican govt hands out books - cartoon books - detailing (as much as a cartoon book can detail) how to get over the border, how to get work which groups will help you etc etc.

    Remember, one of the top 5 (if not three) of Mexico's money makers is the money sent home from the illegals here in the US.
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